Why ROI Matters More Than Win Rate
A high hit rate can hide poor prices; ROI measures the real efficiency of committed capital.
Win rate tells you how often you win. ROI tells you whether the capital you risk actually produces a return.
Not every winning bet is a good decision, and not every losing bet is a bad one.
Two strategies can place the same number of bets and produce completely different economic results. Price, stake and net profit create that difference, so hit rate alone is an incomplete performance measure.
What does ROI actually measure?
ROI equals net profit divided by total amount staked, multiplied by 100. If 100 units of turnover generate 6 units of profit, ROI is 6%. This makes strategies and periods comparable on a common basis.
Why can win rate mislead?
- 10 bets at 1.20: 8 wins and 2 losses = –0.40 units
- 10 bets at 2.10: 5 wins and 5 losses = +0.50 units
- The first strategy wins 80% of the time but loses money
- The second hits only 50% yet produces positive ROI
- The relationship between hit rate and break-even probability explains the difference
Convert decimal odds to break-even probability with 1 / odds. At 2.00 you need 50%; at 1.25 you need 80% merely to break even, before costs and margin.
ROI still needs context
A short winning streak can create exceptional ROI. Sample size, drawdown, average odds, closing-line value and stability across market conditions should be reviewed together.
Win rate measures frequency. ROI measures capital efficiency.
How does DAQIS measure performance?
For every strategy we track entry price, closing price, stake, profit, ROI and drawdown. The aim is not an impressive percentage, but evidence that an edge persists across enough bets and market conditions.
Summary
A high win rate may feel reassuring, but it does not prove profitability. Because ROI incorporates price and risked capital, it is much closer to the strategy’s real economic value.